The Drunkard's walk: how randomness rules our lives

Peering through the eyepiece of randomness: the hidden role of chance . . . when human beings can be outperformed by a rat

The laws of truths and half-truths: the basic principles of probability and how they are abused . . . why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation

Finding your way through a space of possibilities: a framework for thinking about random situations . . . from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal

Tracking the pathways to success: how to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters . . . the mathematical meaning of expectation

The dueling laws of large and small numbers: the extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe . . . Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette

False positives and positive fallacies: how to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge . . . mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O. J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy

Measurement and the law of errors: the meaning and lack of meaning in measurements . . . the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets

The order in chaos: how large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness . . . or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit

Illusions of patterns and patterns of illusion: why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events . . . can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random?

The drunkard's walk: why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality . . . Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life.

Prologue --

ch. 1. Peering through the eyepiece of randomness : the hidden role of chance : when human beings can be outperformed by a rat --

ch. 2. The laws of truths and half-truths : the basic principles of probability and how they are abused : why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation --

ch. 3. Finding your way through a space of possibilities : a framework for thinking about random situations : from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal --

ch. 4. Tracking the pathways to success : how to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters : the mathematical meaning of expectation --

ch. 5. The dueling laws of large and small numbers : the extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe : Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette --

ch. 6. False positives and positive fallacies : how to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge : mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O.J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy --

ch. 7. Measurement and the law of errors : the meaning and lack of meaning in measurements : the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets --

ch. 8. The order in chaos : how large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness : or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit --

ch. 9. Illusions of patterns and patterns of illusion : why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events : can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? --

ch. 10. The drunkard's walk : why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality : Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life --

Acknowledgments --

Notes --

Index.